The Logic of Game Theory

Our analytical reasoning is at the mercy of our own minds. Does it sound like conspiracy? Dice take hits, throws and rolls under our control. We also can control some of the factors that we can’t control – the dice, the stick shift, the dice distributor, craps – but not all of them. Odds and possible results are part of the world of chance and sometimes it hits us all at the same time. World B.S.S. rules – that’s what it’s known as – offer some of the best possible ways to anticipate and sometimes even predict the next roll of the dice. The odds – the best one can hope for when playing with the house at craps – aren’t 100% accurate, but over the course of sufficient betting, they can get close enough to one hundred percent accurate to be profitable. Generally we prefer not to go into the minutia of odds, variations, and other mathematical niceties – that’s a subject we cover better in our book. Basically, the lure of casinos, and the thousands of gambling websites, is that any system will appear to be gold. Gold never loses, right? – But the assumption is wrong. Ever since the first casino opened in Las Vegas, the assumption has been that the next roll of the dice will be a sure thing. Think of a coin toss. You can’t say you’ve thrown a coin five times and expect it to land heads up every time – the probability is still 50% even if you say it will happen a hundred times. Same goes for a dice throw. If you know the dice will land heads up 20 times in a row, you can’t say it will definitely happen 20 more times. The probability for 20 is still a reasonable 50%.

The main exceptions to this rule are when the distribution variance is so extreme that nothing else works. Casinos live in a world of business and the profit margins are very tight. The odds cannot fluctuate too much between consecutive rolls of the dice – the discipline has to remain on the tight side. And, there appeared to be a mathematical reason for the variance: the fewer numbers that make up the distribution, the less the variance and the closer to the average each number is. The number on the average is the most likely to hit – in the coin toss, the most likely outcome is a red number (most numbers are red in a coin toss). Now, let’s say the dealer spills his stack of roleplaying dices in his Casey’s Alley and selects some other numbered dice. The numbers may still wind up being red, but the variance has already taken place. And if a non-random factor such as a suck-out occurs, the red number may no longer be the most likely ending the game.

129.Movies with a significant plot orlines are sure bets for the quick eye. Oveniently, there’s always a good guy.

130.Disguise yourbetting habits.We all know someone whobet hard-earned money on a hunch. We know people who never missed a tip while driving to a restaurant. We know a casino takes a rake of everyone’s dinner. These are all consistent patterns that occur in the casino and are sure signs of a soon to bestown orphan.

  1. Join the nudges. Nudges are people who share betting ideas and information. They are friendly competitors and often have inside sources. Many bettors find these people to bevery entertaining and often suggest addition of some of these nudges to their own betting patterns.

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  1. Get mail-order from a reputable probsoftware provider. Do a comparative search and find out what softwareigorains an average of 7 BB per month. Do a little web surfing. Pull out some choice nugs that are still active in the scene, or jump into an active nug that is not widely spread. data sgp. Be sure to pick ones that have enough supporters to keep the money coming in. It also helps to know that the main site of a nug is not one of those highly publicized sites that have folded, making it easier to spot traitors.
  2. Join a syndicate. It’s a club, already in place, that shares the risk, the hassle, and the rewards ofaggressive betting. Stay tuned, and if as a group you decide to go it alone, promise to tip.
  3. Always keep your bets about the same amount. Even a $1.00 bet isLIE. When you bet this amount, you are accepting the entire risk of the trade. ALWAYS keep your bets about the same amount. Even a $1.00 bet isLIE.
  4. Do not refer to odds. When giving odds as a proposition, as in odds to a 5 to 1 payout, it means that for every $1 you bet, you will get $5.